Who's got the early edge?
Who's got the early edge?
Lots of votes already cast in local races ... Dems ahead in early ballot returns ... Electric elections.
Almost a third of all registered voters in Pima County have already filled out and mailed back their ballots.
Have you?
Arizona’s early voting system makes it easy for voters to cast ballots at their convenience, either at an early voting station or from the comfort of their homes.
And it means we can see in real-time who’s already cast their vote, who’s sitting on their ballot and who might sit this whole election out.1
As you might expect in a Democrat-dominated county, Democrats here have returned more ballots — about 101,500, compared to 65,100 from Republicans, and 48,100 from independent and third-party voters.
Nearly 42% of registered Democrats already voted, compared to 35% of Republicans in the county.
Statewide, the percentage of Democrats who have already voted is slightly higher than that of Republicans.
But Republicans have still turned in about 90,000 more ballots than Democrats.
As usual, older voters are leading the way.
More than half of voters age 75-plus already voted in Pima County, while only 6% of those under 35 have cast their ballots.
Not only can we see who’s voting, but we can see where people are voting — which is helpful when you want to drill down to see who’s got the edge in the hottest races across Southern Arizona.
There’s really nothing we like more than drilling into data. And we couldn’t do it without financial support from our paid subscribers.
Congressional District 6
State of the race: More Democrats than Republicans have cast their ballots so far in this uber-competitive, but Republican-leaning, district that covers southeastern Arizona.
Who’s running?: Republican U.S. Rep. Juan Ciscomani is trying for a second term in this rematch of the 2022 race against Democratic challenger Kirsten Engel.
Ballots returned: Democrats returned 77,900 ballots, compared to 73,100 from Republicans and 46,500 from independent and third-party voters.
Turnout: 37% overall. Democrats had a 47% rate, Republicans had a 38% rate, and independent and third-party voters were at 26%.
Legislative District 17
State of the race: Republicans have a slight edge in ballot returns so far, but it’s pretty tight between the two major parties. The district leans Republican and all three seats (two in the House and one in the Senate) are held by Republicans. Still, Democrats are hopeful they can flip one or two seats here. Independents will likely be the deciders in this district, and only about a quarter of them have voted so far.
Who’s running?: Republican Reps. Cory McGarr and Rachel Jones are trying to win second terms as they face Democrat Kevin Volk. In the race for the Senate seat, former lawmaker Vince Leach is trying to win back the seat he lost to Justine Wadsack two years ago. He sent her packing in the Republican primary and now he’s facing Democrat John McLean.
Ballots returned: Republican voters in Pima County and southern Pinal County returned 27,100 ballots, compared to 26,000 by Democrats. Independent and third-party voters have returned 16,700 ballots.
Turnout: 38% overall. Democrats had a 50% rate, Republicans were at 38%, and independent and third-party voters were at 28%.
Pima County Supervisor, District 4
State of the race: The district leans Republican, but more Democrats have returned their ballots so far.
Who’s running: Republican Steve Christy is trying to win a third term as he faces a challenge from Democrat Vanessa Bechtol.
Ballots returned: Democratic voters turned in 22,600 ballots, compared to 20,500 from Republicans. Independent and third-party voters have turned in about 13,000 ballots.
Pima County Supervisor, District 1
State of the race: The district is almost evenly split between Republican and Democratic voters, but more Democrats are turning out so far. Prior to the 2020 election, Republicans had held the seat for many years.
Who’s running?: Democrat Rex Scott is looking for a second term in this rematch of the 2020 race with Republican Steve Spain.
Ballots returned: Democratic voters returned 25,600 ballots, while Republicans returned 19,600, and independent and third-party voters returned 13,600.
Who’s in charge here?: Electricity rates in Tucson and elsewhere in Arizona have gone up faster than usual over the past few years, which raises questions about whether the Arizona Corporation Commission is the victim of “regulatory capture” ahead of the November 5 election of three commissioners, the Arizona Daily Star’s Tony Davis reports.
Sunlight needed: The Arizona Attorney General’s Office says the Nogales City Council violated public meeting laws when they met with representatives of a mining company in March, the Nogales International’s Daisy Zavala Magaña reports. The council didn’t have a valid reason to meet privately with representatives of South32, which is expanding its operations in the Patagonia Mountains. The council also didn’t properly post public notices or the minutes of the meeting, which the AG’s Office said made it impossible to know for certain what happened at the meeting.
Big money: The two candidates in Congressional District 6 raised more than $13 million this election cycle, Arizona Public Media’s Zac Ziegler, Christopher Conover and Danyelle Khmara report. Democratic challenger Kirsten Engel had an edge of $1 million over incumbent Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani in the race. That’s just one of the nuggets AZPM pulled from a deep dive into campaign finance in state and federal races.
Long, winding road: The third candidate in the CD6 race is Athena Eastwood, a Green Party candidate from Oro Valley who had an unconventional path to getting on the ballot, including getting just 26 write-in votes, changing her name from “Karen” and a last-minute party change, the Arizona Luminaria’s John Washington and Becky Pallack report.
Filling in: The Pima Animal Care Center will have former Tucson City Councilman Steve Kozachik at the helm as county officials try to find a permanent director by next April, the Tucson Sentinel’s Paul Ingram reports. Kozachik will take over on December 7, replacing former director Monica Dangler, who announced her plan to resign this month.
All souls invited: If you’re planning to go to the All Souls Procession this weekend, This is Tucson’s Gloria Knott has everything you need to know, from where the procession starts on Sunday, to how the procession itself came together in 1990.
23: The number of heat records broken in Tucson over the past month or so.
We’re using data from Uplift Campaigns as of October 26 here. They're a digital media company that supports Democratic candidates. They also have the best early ballot data that’s publicly available. Data Orbital also has stats on early ballots, but we find the Uplift data is easier to handle.