The Daily Agenda: Pima County races to watch
There are a ton of interesting elections coming up … Democratic advantage might slip … What happens when COVID money runs out?
It’s still early, but Democrats beware.
The 4-1 advantage Democrats have had on the Pima County Board of Supervisors for the past four years could shrink, or even evaporate entirely, if Republican candidates win a few key elections this year. And the races for sheriff and several other countywide offices are very much up in the air.
Dozens of candidates already filed to run for county offices, and we’ll probably see a few more as the weeks go by. We wanted to get a jump on our election coverage, so we’re sketching out the big races today. We’ll do the same for the races for constables, justices of the peace, and judges soon.
The supervisor race to watch is in District 1. It’s shaping up to be a rematch of the tight 2020 election when Democrat Rex Scott narrowly beat Republican Steve Spain.
Democrats have a slight advantage in the district, with about 2,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans. But this is the seat former Republican Supervisor Ally Miller held for eight years, so it’d be wise to expect the unexpected.
Scott is facing a primary challenge from Jake Martin, a University of Arizona student who founded a nonprofit to help survivors of sexual assault and domestic abuse. Scott’s probably going to win that one. If he does, he’ll face Spain in the general election. (Independent Robert L. Reus also is running)
Another race that could shift the party control of the Board of Supervisors is in District 3. This one’s wide open, now that longtime Democratic Supervisor Sharon Bronson retired.
Democrats hold a 10,000 voter advantage in that district, but there are a lot of independent voters and Republican Janet Wittenbraker built up some name recognition when she ran for Tucson mayor last year.
Wittenbraker is the only Republican candidate so far in District 3, but the Democratic field is already crowded with Marana Unified School District Governing Board member Kathryn Mikronis; Tohono O’odham community organizer April Hiosik Ignacio; Jennifer Allen, who has worked at the ACLU, League of Conservation Voters, and the Border Action Network; and former Tucson Unified School District board member Miguel Cuevas. (Independent Iman-Utopia Layjou Bah is also running)
Over in District 5, Democratic Supervisor Adelita Grijalva will face independent Val Romero in November. Democrats have a massive advantage in the district and Grijalva trounced her opponent in 2020.
But don’t count Romero out. He pulled off a win in 2022 when he ran for a seat on the TUSD Governing Board.
There’s nothing we like more than covering local elections. Consider upgrading to a paid subscription so we can keep doing it.
As for the two other supervisor districts, Republican Steve Christy is running unopposed in District 4.
The District 2 race could easily end up with Democratic Supervisor Matt Heinz winning re-election. He won handily in 2020 and he doesn’t have any Democratic challengers so far.
But the race is going to be colorful. Two of the candidates, John Backer and Beatrice Cory Stephens, running against him have heckled him at the call-to-the-public at supervisors’ meetings. Stephens appears to be well organized and helped found Save Our Kids SUSD in Sahuarita. Rafael De La Rosa, Jr. a Republican precinct committeeman and a former candidate for the Sunnyside Unified School District Governing Board, rounds out the Republican field in District 2.
The last remaining Republican holding countywide office, Treasurer Beth Ford, is retiring after 24 years in office. Her deputy and hand-picked successor, Republican Chris Ackerley, is running to replace her. He’ll have to overcome the 64,000 voter advantage Democrats have in the county, as well as Democratic candidates Sami Hamed and Brian Johnson.
One of the biggest countywide races to keep an eye on is for sheriff. This one is far from a sure thing for Democratic incumbent Chris Nanos.
Nanos eked out a victory over Republican Mark Napier last time around. And he hasn’t stayed popular with his deputies. The Pima County Deputy’s Organization approved a vote of no-confidence in Nanos this week. He’ll face two longtime department employees, Democrat Sanford “Sandy” Rosenthal and Republican Heather Lappin, in the election.
Other candidates for sheriff include Republicans William P. Phillips, Terry A. Frederick, Brian T. Hofmann, and Democrat Trista Tramposch Di Genova.
At the County Attorney’s Office, Democratic incumbent Laura Conover easily handled her primary opponents in 2020. This time around, she’s facing a primary challenge from Democrat Mike Jette.
The race for Superintendent of Schools could be interesting. Democratic incumbent Dustin J. Williams will face MUSD governing board member Dr. Maribel Lopez in the primary.
Incumbent Recorder Gabriella Cázares-Kelly is running unopposed, as is incumbent Assessor Suzanne Droubie.
Let us know what you think about the races and candidates in a letter to the editor. Email Curt at curt@tucsonagenda.com.
Recount resolution: Attorney General Kris Mayes said Wednesday the City of Tucson isn’t required to recount the ballots for Prop. 413, which provided a significant pay increase to the city’s mayor and council, the Arizona Republic's Sarah Lapidus reports. The pay raise passed by fewer than 300 votes, but Mayes said in a legal opinion that the automatic recount law only refers to statewide ballot measures and not municipal measures.
Show them the money: Tucson Unified School District’s federal coronavirus relief money is set to run out in June, leaving the district’s governing board with tough decisions regarding the extra teachers paid for by those funds, the Tucson Sentinel’s Blake Morlock writes. An internal study showed students at schools that provided academic interventions performed better, but if TUSD wants to keep the specialists on, it’ll have to find the money in its own already tight budget. Nearly one in three students who received help showed growth of one letter grade or more compared to one in five students who did not.
Buses outshine streetcars: Tucson officials appear to be giving up on the idea of building a network of streetcar routes, in favor of a rapid transit bus system, KOLD’s Bud Foster reports. The high cost of streetcar routes, at $110 million per mile, is too much for officials to stomach. The rapid bus system would have a dedicated lane and the driver could control stop lights. The city council is set to discuss the system at their January 23 meeting.
About those buses: The City of Tucson and Sun Tran are holding a series of public meetings next week to discuss proposed changes to the city’s transit system, the Arizona Daily Star’s Charles Borla writes. Proposed changes include mergers, discontinuations and reroutes of more than 60 Sun Tran routes, 14 Sun Express routes and eight Sun Shuttle routes. The seven meetings will be held in-person, but a video explaining the recommended changes is available for those unable to attend.
More local reporters in Tucson: The Arizona Luminaria has added two University of Arizona journalism students to its reporting corp, thanks to the Jamieson-Metcalf Family Scholarship for Public Affairs in Journalism, which is also funding the Tucson Agenda’s two new reporting fellows. Kiara Adams and Noor Haghighi will write about public affairs topics and “center the stories of Tucsonans.” Haghighi interned at the Luminaria last year and is hoping to learn more about border affairs and public records this time around. Adams previously interned at the Las Vegas Review Journal and says she’s looking forward to reporting on the issues that matter.
Mining update: The Arizona Department of Environmental Quality has proposed issuing a new Air Quality Control Permit for the construction and operation of the controversial South32 Hermosa mine near Patagonia, Arizona Public Media’s Katya Mendoza reports. The facility has the potential to emit nitrogen oxide, carbon monoxide and hazardous air pollutants at a level that exceeds federal guidelines from both of its main two deposits. The mine is classified as a major source of pollution and locals have opposed its operation, citing concerns of manganese exposure.
54: The number of candidates so far who have filed statements of interest to run in Pima County elections this year.
Keep it going. Splendid work.