Just FYI. Rachel Keshel is the wife of notoriously scammy election denier professional Seth Keshel, who makes a living off spreading lies about election insecurity and non-existent fraud. Anything she says about elections is guaranteed 100% bunkum. Their 'evidence' is that they claim they have footage of LUCHA volunteers holding mail-in ballotsz; total hogwash. We need to get that scam artist out of office! Support Democratic candidates for LD 17, and rid Arizona of this plague of Keshels.
Keshel is a joke nobody is laughing at. She is an election denying bozo. She will be part of the goofy little group of GOP malcontents in attendance at a Benson clambake organized by Turning Point Neo-Nazi Charlie Kirk. Even ASU said "no" to him and they take money from everybody. Butierrez & Candy Biggs will also attend. Ohhh boy...hand out the party favors. Just when you thought the upper limits to Republican boorishness had been met and exceeded. No. It hasn't.
According to Uplift, the voters so far skew old. As of Thursday, 55% of voters are over 65 years old. Over-55 voters made up 70% of the total. Gen Z turnout has not been high. That would seem to be different than what happened in NYC's Democratic mayoral primary, where Mamdani brought out a lot of young people who never voted before; they voted quite early.
Congratulations, Richard on getting on the ballot.
Your analysis on the returns skewing with an older demographic is on point but I’d be careful speculating on who benefits from those reliable voters who send their ballots back immediately.
Raul had a few challengers in the past but there hasn’t been an open primary in CD7 for more than two decades.
Younger voters tend to vote late in the cycle in my experience.
Thank you. I am not on the ballot, but previously No Labels would not allow even write-in candidates.
The way I read Arizona Revised Statutes 16-645(D) ("a letter declaring nomination shall not be issued to a write-in candidate of a party that has not qualified for continued representation on the official ballot pursuant to section 16-804 unless the candidate receives a plurality of the votes of the party for the office for which the candidate is a candidate."), I need at least one write-in vote to get on the special general election ballot.
No Labels currently has enough registrants to HAVE qualified as a party entitled to continued representation (like the Libertarians), in which case, to win the primary I'd need the same number of votes as signatures to get on the ballot, which is mostly impossible. (That's why there are so few Libertarian candidates.)
But A.R.S. 16-804(B) says "a political organization is entitled to continued representation as a political party on the official ballot for state, county, city or town officers if, on October 1 of the year immediately preceding the year in which the general election for state or county officers and for city or town officers one hundred fifty-five days immediately preceding the primary election in such jurisdiction, such party has registered electors in the party equal to at least two-thirds of one percent of the total registered electors in such jurisdiction."
A.R.S. 16-804(C) says "The secretary of state shall determine the political parties qualified for continued representation on the state ballot pursuant to this section by December 1 of the appropriate year. Each county recorder shall furnish to the secretary of state such information as the secretary of state may require no later than October 31 of the preceding year."
So in my view, No Labels has not yet qualified for continued representation. It will have to wait until the Secretary of State sees the October 1 voter registration count.
This is the legal argument I will make if I get at least one write-in vote and the state refuses to put me on the September 23 ballot.
The Green Party winner -- whoever it is -- can definitely win with at least one vote and will be on the September 23 ballot. On the other hand, it will be practically impossible for there to be a Libertarian to be on the September 23 ballot.
Next year, it will be extremely challenging for anyone to win a Libertarian or No Labels primary as a write-in candidate or get enough signatures to get on the primary ballot unless someone has a lot of money to spend. The Green Party will still be easy: one write-in vote, assuming no other Green runs in your primary, will get you on the general election ballot. But after 2026, the Greens will be off the Arizona ballot until and unless they petition to get on in 2028.
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You are right that I should be careful not to speculate on who benefits from early returns, but what's the fun in that? Being careful not to speculate will put more of your fellow journalists out of business!
Great to see Independents participating in this way! Also, curious if y’all are planning further coverage of the upcoming Council vote on reinstating transit fares? I’m guessing that it will be the primary focus for the August 6 meeting, and in my contact with ward offices, I’ve heard that some councilmembers support simply reinstating fares, some support a “tiered system,” and some clearly support continuing free transit. I’m most curious about what specifically (in dollars and cents) a “tiered system” would look like. What measures (income, employment, etc) will be used to determine tier eligibility? What are the fare costs on each tier? How many tiers will there be? Etc.
Wyatt, yes but I have a primary the day before, so I will do my best to keep on top of fare-free transit.
I can’t make any predictions but I strongly suspect the decision rests with whether the city manager has identified funding to keep fare free transit for another year.
Any decision is going to be a short term band aid if they keep fare free transit going.
Of course, as a part-time New York City resident and elderly bus rider, I can tell you that many people just refuse to pay the fare, and the bus driver, not wanting any hassle, just lets them go, so in effect, paying a bus fare is currently optional. I don't know if bus riders in Tucson would behave similarly if fares were reinstated.
While I’m excited about Mamdani’s concepts for free bus fares, he is running in one of the very few US cities with multiple reliable forms of public transit (and one in which more people use public transit than drive a personal vehicle). And buses in NYC are typically used primarily within boroughs, so people still have to rely on the subway or their feet to get to their final destinations unless they are staying within that specific borough. If Sun Link were expanded further north and south as a fared alternative to Sun Tran, I could see free bus fare working in Tucson, but until we have multiple forms of reliable public transit that are actually being used for transit, we will still hit the roadblock of community frustration.
Just FYI. Rachel Keshel is the wife of notoriously scammy election denier professional Seth Keshel, who makes a living off spreading lies about election insecurity and non-existent fraud. Anything she says about elections is guaranteed 100% bunkum. Their 'evidence' is that they claim they have footage of LUCHA volunteers holding mail-in ballotsz; total hogwash. We need to get that scam artist out of office! Support Democratic candidates for LD 17, and rid Arizona of this plague of Keshels.
Keshel is a joke nobody is laughing at. She is an election denying bozo. She will be part of the goofy little group of GOP malcontents in attendance at a Benson clambake organized by Turning Point Neo-Nazi Charlie Kirk. Even ASU said "no" to him and they take money from everybody. Butierrez & Candy Biggs will also attend. Ohhh boy...hand out the party favors. Just when you thought the upper limits to Republican boorishness had been met and exceeded. No. It hasn't.
According to Uplift, the voters so far skew old. As of Thursday, 55% of voters are over 65 years old. Over-55 voters made up 70% of the total. Gen Z turnout has not been high. That would seem to be different than what happened in NYC's Democratic mayoral primary, where Mamdani brought out a lot of young people who never voted before; they voted quite early.
Also, as the write-in candidate in the No Labels primary -- the first anywhere in the nation! -- I would like to thank the federal Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit for Friday's decision allowing me to run for this office. https://azcapitoltimes.com/news/2025/07/11/no-labels-party-candidates-allowed-to-run-despite-complaint-from-party-officials/
There are also primaries for Green Party and Libertarian Party voters.
Congratulations, Richard on getting on the ballot.
Your analysis on the returns skewing with an older demographic is on point but I’d be careful speculating on who benefits from those reliable voters who send their ballots back immediately.
Raul had a few challengers in the past but there hasn’t been an open primary in CD7 for more than two decades.
Younger voters tend to vote late in the cycle in my experience.
Thank you. I am not on the ballot, but previously No Labels would not allow even write-in candidates.
The way I read Arizona Revised Statutes 16-645(D) ("a letter declaring nomination shall not be issued to a write-in candidate of a party that has not qualified for continued representation on the official ballot pursuant to section 16-804 unless the candidate receives a plurality of the votes of the party for the office for which the candidate is a candidate."), I need at least one write-in vote to get on the special general election ballot.
No Labels currently has enough registrants to HAVE qualified as a party entitled to continued representation (like the Libertarians), in which case, to win the primary I'd need the same number of votes as signatures to get on the ballot, which is mostly impossible. (That's why there are so few Libertarian candidates.)
But A.R.S. 16-804(B) says "a political organization is entitled to continued representation as a political party on the official ballot for state, county, city or town officers if, on October 1 of the year immediately preceding the year in which the general election for state or county officers and for city or town officers one hundred fifty-five days immediately preceding the primary election in such jurisdiction, such party has registered electors in the party equal to at least two-thirds of one percent of the total registered electors in such jurisdiction."
A.R.S. 16-804(C) says "The secretary of state shall determine the political parties qualified for continued representation on the state ballot pursuant to this section by December 1 of the appropriate year. Each county recorder shall furnish to the secretary of state such information as the secretary of state may require no later than October 31 of the preceding year."
So in my view, No Labels has not yet qualified for continued representation. It will have to wait until the Secretary of State sees the October 1 voter registration count.
This is the legal argument I will make if I get at least one write-in vote and the state refuses to put me on the September 23 ballot.
The Green Party winner -- whoever it is -- can definitely win with at least one vote and will be on the September 23 ballot. On the other hand, it will be practically impossible for there to be a Libertarian to be on the September 23 ballot.
Next year, it will be extremely challenging for anyone to win a Libertarian or No Labels primary as a write-in candidate or get enough signatures to get on the primary ballot unless someone has a lot of money to spend. The Green Party will still be easy: one write-in vote, assuming no other Green runs in your primary, will get you on the general election ballot. But after 2026, the Greens will be off the Arizona ballot until and unless they petition to get on in 2028.
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You are right that I should be careful not to speculate on who benefits from early returns, but what's the fun in that? Being careful not to speculate will put more of your fellow journalists out of business!
P.S. Being careful not to speculate on things would ruin journalism!
Great to see Independents participating in this way! Also, curious if y’all are planning further coverage of the upcoming Council vote on reinstating transit fares? I’m guessing that it will be the primary focus for the August 6 meeting, and in my contact with ward offices, I’ve heard that some councilmembers support simply reinstating fares, some support a “tiered system,” and some clearly support continuing free transit. I’m most curious about what specifically (in dollars and cents) a “tiered system” would look like. What measures (income, employment, etc) will be used to determine tier eligibility? What are the fare costs on each tier? How many tiers will there be? Etc.
Great work, as always!
Wyatt, yes but I have a primary the day before, so I will do my best to keep on top of fare-free transit.
I can’t make any predictions but I strongly suspect the decision rests with whether the city manager has identified funding to keep fare free transit for another year.
Any decision is going to be a short term band aid if they keep fare free transit going.
Yes, for sure! Primary is top of mind these days. Totally understand :)
There is a lot of commentary now in NYC based on Zohran Mamdani's proposal for ending bus fares. Here is just one example: https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/traffic_and_transit/2025/07/10/free-buses-could-slow-speeds-and-cost-more-
Of course, as a part-time New York City resident and elderly bus rider, I can tell you that many people just refuse to pay the fare, and the bus driver, not wanting any hassle, just lets them go, so in effect, paying a bus fare is currently optional. I don't know if bus riders in Tucson would behave similarly if fares were reinstated.
While I’m excited about Mamdani’s concepts for free bus fares, he is running in one of the very few US cities with multiple reliable forms of public transit (and one in which more people use public transit than drive a personal vehicle). And buses in NYC are typically used primarily within boroughs, so people still have to rely on the subway or their feet to get to their final destinations unless they are staying within that specific borough. If Sun Link were expanded further north and south as a fared alternative to Sun Tran, I could see free bus fare working in Tucson, but until we have multiple forms of reliable public transit that are actually being used for transit, we will still hit the roadblock of community frustration.
Kansas City ended free bus fare a couple of months ago, yet it apparently hasn't helped fund the system:
https://www.kcur.org/news/2025-04-04/kansas-city-will-reinstate-bus-fares-and-reduce-frequency-of-most-routes-under-funding-plan