The $3 million seat
Tucson’s million-dollar man … 220,000 Arizonans at risk … Endorsements hit CD7 race differently.
Our best guess at the total fundraising for the Congressional District 7 special election here in Southern Arizona is just over $3.4 million.
Candidates have reported roughly $2.6 million flowing into their campaign coffers, according to campaign finance reports filed last week.
For those doing the math, where’s the rest of it — the other $800,000 — coming from?
Independent expenditure committees are also spending big in the race. These are outside groups, sometimes run by corporations or unions, that can raise and spend unlimited amounts of money to boost or attack a candidate — so long as they don’t coordinate with said candidates.
“IEs,” as they’re called, have so far committed nearly $800,000 on behalf of their preferred candidates. That’s likely in the form of TV ads and glossy mailers, many supporting Adelita Grijalva.1
Money is not the only potential indicator of a campaign’s success, of course, but it is a big factor. Name ID or a strong ground game can boost a candidate’s chances of winning, but only if they have enough money to stay competitive up until election day.
Before we dive into the financial horse race, let’s take a quick detour into the world of unitemized contributions — which added up to a combined $889,000 across the five candidates who filed reports last week.
Under federal law, individual contributions under $200 don’t need to be itemized or disclosed to the FEC.2
So technically, someone could contribute $49.99 four times — and still not show up on any public report.
It’s totally legal. But it makes it harder for the public to get a clear picture of who’s backing each candidate, what the average contribution looks like, or where the money’s coming from.
Candidates love to brag about receiving small-dollar donations — it shows that average voters support their campaigns, rather than big money interests. But are those unitemized small checks from Southern Arizona? Or small online contributions from New York and California? We don’t know!
Ok, back to the horse race.
Former state legislator Daniel Hernandez — the first Democrat to jump into the race — raised nearly $1 million so far. He also spent big: roughly $945,000, leaving less than $37,000 in the bank as of the June 25 report.
Hernandez has received support from a variety of centrist and union PACs, mining interests in Southern Arizona, and funding from Equality PAC — the political arm of the Congressional LGBTQ Equality Caucus. The donors reflect his centrist, deal-cutting disposition.
Former Pima County Supervisor and former TUSD board member Adelita Grijalva brought in roughly $683,000, not including $151,913 from various political groups.
She pledged during a recent debate not to take money from corporate PACs — but that didn’t stop unions and other organizations from contributing to her campaign.
Grijalva’s support comes from mainstream Democratic groups including Emily’s List and the Sierra Club, but also a number of other politicians’ political PACs gave to her campaign. They include Moms Fed Up PAC, a leadership PAC affiliated with former Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick, Gabby Giffords’ PAC, Kirsten Engel's PAC, and her father’s old political committee, A Whole Lot Of People for Grijalva Congressional Committee. (That transfer from her father’s old PAC wasn’t much — about $980. Raúl Grijalva was never much of a fundraiser compared to modern day fundraising numbers.)
Political newcomer Deja Foxx raised $600,000, with the largest share — about 75% — coming from unitemized small-dollar contributions. Her campaign stands out for that grassroots-style funding, leveraging social media ad buys in addition to TV spots.
The most notable PAC donation came from David Hogg’s political action committee, Leaders We Deserve, which gave Foxx $5,000. It also committed to spend $150,000 in independent expenditures.
Fundraising on the Republican side of the primary has been much slower — this is a Democratic district and few donors want to pour their money into candidates who have little to no chance of winning.
Republican Daniel Butierez, who also ran in 2024, raised $179,946 — although a sizable chunk of that came from his own bank account.
So far, he seems to be pacing himself in a three-way GOP primary. As of the last report, he still had $98,029 in cash on hand.
Republican Jorge Rivas raised $11,191 in his first run for Congress — more than half of it from his personal funds.
As of Monday afternoon, Democrats Jose Malvido, and Patrick Harris hadn’t filed FEC reports.
That’s probably legal. Under FEC rules, you don’t have to file if you haven’t raised or spent more than $5,000.
Jimmy Rodriguez filed a document with FEC stating he hadn’t spent more than $5,000.
“Let this be a clear contrast for voters in the election: a campaign for the people, not the pocketbooks of the powerful,” the Republican candidate wrote.
And with a week left before Election Day, there are still three weeks of spending that haven’t shown up in the reporting cycle yet.
You can thank Tucson City Councilwoman Nikki Lee for spilling some tea over the weekend on everyone’s favorite mystery megaproject: Project Blue.
No, she still doesn’t know who the end user is. Or how much power the site might need. Or how much water it could use. On those fronts, she’s just as in the dark as the rest of us.
Instead, Lee said the City of Tucson will announce a public process this week to talk about Project Blue, including releasing the pre-annexation agreement between the city and the developer, which will hopefully list how much precious resources will be used for all phases of the project.
The emphasis is ours. Most of the public conversation so far has focused only on Phase 1, which would include four data centers. But public documents suggest the site could eventually house as many as 10 data centers.
This is the image Pima County has been using for Project Blue. Maybe this is what it will eventually look like on the southeast edge of Tucson’s city limits.Lee expects the city will release the annexation agreement next Monday. It should answer a lot of questions, although maybe not everything.
The first Tucson City Council meeting on the topic is planned for Wednesday, August 6, although no decisions are expected to be made. Instead, the Council will spend time openly and publicly discussing their pro/con list for Tucson’s first data center.
The Council is expected to vote on whether to approve Project Blue on Tuesday, August 19.
Brace for impact: As Arizonans ready themselves for the fallout from the new federal budget, experts estimate states could lose up to 18% of their Medicaid funding over the next decade, and Arizona likely will be one of the hardest hit states, alongside Kentucky and Virginia, Stateline reported. Meaghan Kramer, health policy advisor to Gov. Katie Hobbs, sat down with KJZZ’s Mark Brodie to talk about how the federal budget could affect Arizona’s Medicaid program, including the loss of funding for rural hospitals and the thousands of Arizonans who could “fall off the rolls.”
“Mainly it's just paperwork,” Kramer said. “That's the reason people are going to fall off the rolls. There are 500,000 people right now who are Medicaid expansion folks in Arizona. And we're estimating that as many as 220,000 of them could, yeah, could lose their health insurance.”
Don’t tax my Tesla: Arizona voters will get to decide whether to tax drivers of electric vehicles next year, Capitol Media Services’ Howard Fischer reports. The Legislature approved a ballot measure from Republican Sen. Jake Hoffman (who drives a Tesla Cybertruck — because of course he does) that would block officials from imposing a tax or fee “based on the vehicle miles traveled.” The issue is drivers of electric vehicles use roads, but they don’t pay the gasoline tax that funds road construction. Hoffman said it’s not about protecting electric vehicles; it’s about government “not tracking or taxing your miles.”
Fly(ers) in the face of neutrality: As part of the Trump administration’s mass deportation program, immigrants who show up for hearings at immigration court are now being given flyers telling them to “self-deport,” the Arizona Republic’s Daniel Gonzalez reports. The flyers were made by the Department of Justice, which runs immigration courts and employs the judges who oversee the cases. Those judges are supposed to be neutral, but immigrant advocates point out that leaving those flyers on courtroom tables doesn’t exactly send the message that immigrants are getting a fair hearing. Meanwhile, a Phoenix woman with leukemia (and legal permanent status) has lost 55 pounds since ICE took her into custody about four months ago, the Phoenix New Times’ Morgan Fischer reported. Arbella Rodríguez Márquez’s partner says staff at Eloy Detention Center, which is one of the deadliest detention centers in the country, aren’t providing sufficient medical care and she has watched Márquez’s physical condition worsen during their weekly visits.
Almost time to roll the dice: It might not look like a casino just yet, but the final beam was installed on the structural framework for Casino Del Sol’s Grant Road casino, which would be the first casino inside Tucson city limits, the Arizona Daily Star’s Gabriela Rico reports. That last beam carries the signatures of several members of the Pascua Yaqui Tribe.
“This milestone represents more than just a construction achievement, it’s a symbol of growth, opportunity and pride for the Pascua Yaqui people,” said Peter Yucupicio, the tribal vice chairman.
We hit a milestone ourselves last week. Two years of publishing the Tucson Agenda! Help us celebrate by clicking this button and getting 50% off a paid subscription!
Taxing decisions: Two local school districts are planning “teeny, tiny tax cuts” as they prepare their annual budgets, Tucson Sentinel columnist Blake Morlock writes in his rundown of local government meetings. Over at the Rio Nuevo board, they’re holding a study session today to discuss a new restaurant going in where Rocco’s Little Chicago used to be, and the board might give a financial hand (thanks to local sales tax revenue) to Cal’s Bake Shop.
Don’t knock it ’til you try it: Celebrity campaign events can reel in a crowd and crack open a few wallets.
Last night, Deja Foxx cozied up to actor Ilana Glazer, best known for their role in Broad City — the millennial stoner feminism cult comedy.
Glazer also founded Generator Collective, a platform aimed at getting more women elected and convincing young people that democracy isn’t just a thing that happens to them.
Foxx is clearly chasing the Gen Z vote in CD7. But she’s not the only one with a famous friend: Adelita Grijalva is bringing in none other than Jane Fonda to support her on Thursday for a virtual fundraiser.
Yes, that Jane Fonda.
The celeb endorsement race is something of a generational showdown — but even a sophomore poli sci major can tell you which generation actually remembers to mail in their ballots.
The reporting periods vary slightly depending on when each campaign launched, but all reports reflect fundraising and spending through June 25, 2025.
Just in case you are doing the math, we also rounded up to the nearest dollar for our infographics.
As the write-in candidate in the No Labels Party, I would like to report that I have raised zero/nothing/nada and I have spent zilch/bupkis.
Even when I was the Democratic nominee for Wyoming’s only congressional district in 2014, the only money I spent was the $300 filing fee, which was more than any person who actually lived in the state. The US Senate candidate spent $50,000 of his own money and got 17% of the vote. I got 23% and carried Teton County, which he and the Democratic candidate for governor, Paul Gosar’s brother Pete, did not.
OK, back to Project Blue. There is still something fishy going on here. Will the release of the annexation agreement identify the ultimate end user? My guess is that whoever it is (or the front company) is afraid of bad local PR. Really? One would think that a company bringing jobs, money, and perhaps even national recognition to a community would want to blast that all over the place.
So, no data here, just deductive reasoning. My bet is that it is a Saudi Arabian firm or sovereign fund that wants in on the AI datacenter boom but doesn't have the natural resources to do it on their own land. The last time this happened in AZ was the fiasco up in La Paz County with Hay and Alfalfa. Water rights and excessive pumping led to the STATE terminating the leases - bad press, and the State stepped in over local government. Look for Fondomonte AZ as a front company.
Other comments, or do I just need more coffee?