The Climate Agenda: Arizona’s Elon Musk of weather

Misinformation has trickled into local weather ... Questionable forecasts by a controversial figure have blown up on social media ... New president in town?

We wrote a lot about misinformation in local races leading up to the primary election, but it seems like Arizona’s weather has become the latest victim.

In recent weeks, the social media platforms and website Arizona Weather Force has gained a lot of traction, amassing 96,000 followers on Facebook and racking up 16,000 shares on a recent post.

But the page’s operator has a lengthy history of controversial forecasting, alarming communities across the country with his extreme predictions and flashy graphics.

At first glance, the Facebook page looks legitimate enough, with graphics resembling those used in television news. But there are also some pretty early red flags.

Arizona Weather Force’s Facebook cover photo includes the phrase, “If you do not wish to die in weather; Folllow me, I’ll save your life one day.”

It touts "blunt life/death decisions” and notes that its operator is an expert in various types of forecasting, as well as “saving lives.”

The forecasts are sometimes right, but the page and its owner, Kevin Douglas Martin, have been called out in the past for posting misleading information that stoked unnecessary fear in communities.

In addition to forecasts, the posts on Arizona Weather Force’s various pages include frequent commentary about the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, including this one on Tuesday:

“If you think NOAA is the ONLY one allowed to issue these alerts, Elon Musk wants to have a word with you.. He went after NASA. And we're going after NOAA.. We're like the Elon Musk of weather.”

On top of all that, until recently, the forecast posts have also included advertisements, including this one in a July 24 forecast warning about incoming extreme weather.

"If you or your loved one is close to death, don't delay, call Phoenix Funeral Services today, and make the departure memorable beyond words ... Phoenix Funeral Services, helping you make peace with death."

But despite all this, the posts are still widely shared in stories, posts and to groups across various platforms.

Two years ago, Terri Jo Neff with the Arizona Independent News Network (previously the Arizona Daily Independent,) reported that Arizona Weather Force issued a tornado watch for Cochise County, causing a “panic-inducing” response in the community and prompting a weather watcher to contact the sheriff with his concerns.

A photo of Kevin Douglas Martin posted to Arizona Weather Force’s page.

Neff wrote that Martin has a “nearly decade-long history of controversial activities under the umbrella of his National Weather Force,” but says it's his dream to operate a weather service “funded by the people.”

Before that, Martin stoked fears in gulf coast communities when he issued a hurricane warning 10 days in advance, predicting a likely path. Meteorologists said at the time that software programs can’t accurately predict at that level so far in advance.

The situation led to the NOAA National Hurricane Center issuing a statement contradicting Martin’s claims, taking the rare step of warning the public about unofficial forecasters.

But more than two years after Neff’s article, Arizona Weather Force’s Facebook following has nearly doubled, which is concerning in an age ripe with misinformation.

We reached out to the National Weather Service to ask about the impact of weather misinformation on professional forecasters’ ability to convey accurate information to the public.

“If misinformation related to weather and public safety causes widespread panic and results in calls to our offices for clarification from public safety partners, we would provide that clarification based on the official NWS forecast,” said NWS Director of Public Affairs Susan Buchanan, who added that this hasn’t been a major or ongoing issue.

Buchanan said that NWS ensures its followers get timely, accurate, and trustworthy information on a number of communication platforms and they encourage the public to have several reliable ways to receive forecasts.

On Wednesday, an Arizona Weather Force page popped up on Facebook, warning Maricopa County residents of a “tornado extravaganza” with 400 “colossal, cataclysmic, and frankly, impressive” tornados on the way.

That same day, Arizona Weather Force introduced its new “Are You Going To Be Screwed Model,” to help its followers gauge the likelihood that they’ll get hit by a storm.

The page called it “a model you can relate to since we do not forecast for your backyard,” and contained a disclaimer:

“AZWF cannot be held responsible if you get screwed or you get disappointed by not getting your roof pulled off or your house flooded, and… maybe even your car windows hit by hail.”

Big step: The Arizona Board of Regents are interviewing a candidate for the University of Arizona President position this morning, Arizona Public Media’s Christopher Conover reports. Dr. Suresh Garimella is currently president of the University of Vermont. Regents announced the interview Thursday, saying Garimella has “led with a bold vision and thoughtful financial discipline” and has more than doubled the school’s research enterprise and strengthened relationships. Prior to taking over at Vermont, Garimella was executive vice president at Purdue University. The interview is happening at 7 a.m. and is not open to the public.

Frozen assets: A judge has appointed a “temporary receiver” to manage former Santa Cruz County Treasurer Liz Gutfahr’s properties and assets, the Nogales International’s Angela Gervasi writes. Gutfahr is being sued by the county for allegedly embezzling $39.4 million (largely from schools) over the course of several years. Under the new court order, her assets will be assigned to the custody of MCA Financial Group, a firm that offers litigation support services.

Park upgrades: The City of Tucson received a $2.9 million federal grant for improvements to Jacobs Park on the north side, the Tucson Sentinel’s Natalie Robbins reports. Upgrades include a skate park, softball complex, soccer field, indoor soccer court and pickleball court. The grant was part of a $47 million federal program that includes 10 parks across the country. The park will also be getting a new playground, picnic and grill area, concessions building and an expanded dog park. The plan also includes eliminating a parking lot and planting 310 new trees.

Pets in crisis: Pima Animal Care Center is hosting a mega adoption event this weekend, KJZZ’s Alisa Resnick reports. PACC is over capacity with more than 520 dogs and 91 cats and is expecting new arrivals as part of two large animal welfare cases. All dogs and cats are free to adopt and free crates are available for dogs over 40 pounds. The event runs from 10 a.m. to 8 p.m. both days.

In good company: Three retired Latinas who met in a local writers group all published books this year, Bill Finley writes for the Arizona Daily Star. “Rincon Writers” is a small informal group of women who meet every month to help each other sharpen their prose. One woman published a poetry book, another authored a collection of stories about her Hispanic heritage and the third penned a memoir about how she became the woman she is today.

Trash to treasure: A local artist and designer is pitching designer trailers as a potential solution to the affordable housing crisis, the Tucson Weekly’s Jack Miessner writes. Timo Elliott moved to Tucson and into a trailer of his own during the pandemic. He says he’s on a mission to overcome the stigma associated with trailer parks, trying to rebrand the concept of trailer trash as trailer treasure. An advocate for affordable housing, Elliot previously lived in Los Angeles and was concerned by the growing homeless population.

If you’d like your group’s event featured in a future edition of the Climate Agenda, please send details to caitlin@tucsonagenda.com.

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