Where we're at and what to expect
It all comes down to today ... And however long it takes to figure out who won ... Cochise County in the spotlight.
Here we go. Election Day is finally here.
All eyes will be on the presidential election, of course. But a bajillion news outlets are covering that one, so we’ll keep our focus on local elections in Pima County.
A key thing to remember is we’re probably not going to know who won every election when the first results are released this evening.
As of Sunday, voters in Pima County had returned 376,000 ballots.1 That was good for a 57% turnout rate. Experts are expecting the final turnout rate to be much higher than that.
Democrats returned 46,000 more ballots than Republicans, but we don’t know yet how many voters from each party will show up to polls today.
The youth vote didn’t materialize in the early ballots, at least not yet. Less than 1% of returned ballots in Pima County came from voters ages 18 to 24. Voters over the age of 55 accounted for the lion’s share so far.
As for when we’ll know anything at all today, election results for Pima County races will start appearing on the Arizona Secretary of State’s website after 8 p.m. this evening.2 Statewide results will show up here.
A few races are probably going to be so lopsided that news outlets will feel comfortable saying who the likely winner is.
For example, it looks like Democratic Supervisor Adelita Grijalva is crushing her independent challenger Val Romero in early ballot returns. Democratic voters in District 5 returned 23,000 more ballots than Republican voters. Even when you include early ballots from independent and third-party voters, Grijalva still has a healthy lead.
No matter what happens in the election, we’ll be here to help you make sense of it.
While the outcome of the District 5 race could be clear this evening, other races might be so tight that nobody will have any clue who won for several days.
The supervisor race in District 4 could be one of those. Republican Supervisor Steve Christy has a narrow lead in early ballots, about 1,900, over Democratic challenger Vanessa Bechtol.
The district is home to more Republican voters than Democrats, so Christy has the advantage, but 44,000 independent and third-party voters also live in the district.
What about the District 1 race, the rematch of a 2020 election that was super close?
Democrats are up by 5,000 ballots as first-term Democratic Supervisor Rex Scott faces Republican Steve Spain for the second time. But there are just as many independent and third-party voters in District 1 as there are in District 4.
Serenity now!: This could be a bumpy ride for the next few days, weeks, or even months. It's not the worst thing in the world to step away from election news and take a breather every now and then. That's what we're going to do. The election will still be there when you get back. Over in Legislative District 17, the Republican lead widened since we checked in on early ballots last week.
The GOP is up by about 8,000 ballots over Democrats. But the 60,000 independent and third-party voters could play a big role in deciding the races for two House seats and a Senate seat in LD17.
Independent voters also could make the Congressional District 6 race a nail-biter. It’s a Republican-leaning, but very competitive, district that is home to 181,000 independent and third-party voters.
Republicans took the lead over the past week. They’re up 5,000 ballots right now as first-term GOP Rep. Juan Ciscomani tries to defeat Democrat Kirsten Engel for a second time.
The races in CD6 and LD17 probably will draw national media attention. The GOP has a slim majority in the U.S. House and CD6 has been seen as a key race for more than a year.
As for LD17, the races there could determine which party controls the Arizona Legislature and lately national news outlets have been paying more attention to state legislative races.
Election Q and A
There’s a first time for everything. We did a Reddit AMA (Ask Me Anything) yesterday with our sister newsletter the Arizona Agenda. It was great to see what kinds of questions voters had for us, and it really showed all the different issues they have on their minds right now.
National spotlight: Cochise County was featured in the Washington Post, but not exactly in a great light. Republican County Attorney Brian McIntyre explains to reporter Yvonne Wingett Sanchez what it was like dealing with two county supervisors who refused to certify the 2022 election results, and what he worries could happen this year.
“I always have been and always will be prepared for the worst,” said McIntyre, 52. “In Cochise County, there will be another fair, free, fraud-free election. But the true believers are the true believers.”
Looking even farther back: After we sent out yesterday’s newsletter about the early days of early voting in Arizona, the State of Arizona Research Library sent us a link to even more of the history. It’s worth a look if you’re curious about how it all began, all the way back to the 1920s.
Funding shortfall: Local officials say there isn’t enough money to finish the Grant Road widening project or to start improvements on North First Avenue, the Arizona Daily Star’s Charles Borla reports. The projects were part of the original Regional Transportation Authority plan that voters approved in 2006, and could be a sticking point as officials pitch the 20-year RTA Next plan to voters.
“I have very little confidence in the management of RTA based on the lack of communication and the leadership style,” Tucson City Councilman Kevin Dahl told the Star. “I’m not confident going into RTA Next, and I’m not confident that we’re going to be able to finish the (current plan) as promised.”
Indoor Super Bowl: The next three championship games for the Indoor Football League will be held in Tucson, Arizona Public Media’s Zachary Ziegler reports. The Rio Nuevo board voted last week to host the games and invest $333,000 each year.
"This is about more than return on investment," said Rio Nuevo Board Chair Flether McCusker. "This is a chance to put Tucson on the map internationally, to be in the same breath as Nashville and Vegas.”
Need a break: Voters in Green Valley say this election season was “exhausting,” a “dramatic circus,” and “upsetting,” the Green Valley News’ Cody Hedges reports. A lot of the tension came from the presidential race, but the county attorney race this summer also was accusation-heavy, and the CD6 race is still stressful.
All aboard!: The new president of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum, says she wants to build a passenger railway between Nogales and Mexico City, the Star’s Emily Bregel reports. The plan is to start construction next year and finish the line, along with two other proposed lines, by the end of Sheinbaum’s term in 2030.
82 million: Ballots already cast across the country, the Associated Press reports.
We use tallies of early ballots from Uplift Campaigns, a digital media firm that works with Democratic campaigns.
The Arizona Daily Star also put together an election results dashboard.
Memo to Claudia S. La Presidenta de Mexico. The rail lines exist. In fact...inexpensive passenger travel goes way back. It may need a tune-up. It's a good idea.